February 28, 2026- So, the Iranian regime has been upended, partially, by the intense bombing campaign. Whether the retaliation, by the part of the regime that is still intact, will amount to much, remains to be seen. As a member of the Baha’i Faith, I can only hope that the reign of terror that my fellows in Faith in that country have been enduring for nearly 182 years will be mitigated by the reshuffling of the Iranian power deck.

The playing cards analogy is only partly apt. The Islamic Republic is no house of cards. Their security apparatus will need to be reckoned with for some time to come. Even if the IRGC is removed from power, it will splinter into guerilla units, which may well harass the U.S. and other countries for years to come, the way al-Qaeda and IS have been, since the 1990s. It will have Russian help and perhaps Chinese acquiescence.

That said, it is good for the Iranian people, as a whole, that there will be changes made, if not immediately, then in fairly short order. The route of repression has never paid off, anywhere, in the long run. Tyrants from Nero to Pinochet and Ceaucescu have paid a heavy price for brutalizing their people. The Islamic Republic is now beginning to pay for its savagery. Those in other countries who are holding their people down would do well to take note. Those who are tempted to engage in repression should also take heed.

This is not a time for elites and oligarchs to do anything other than exercise humility.